Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Young vs. Gomez

Lately everyone is looking at our offense, or lack thereof from middle infield and from the Young/Gomez outfielder du jour. I think the Twins need some stability in the lineup. They need the same lineup for 5 games a week. The outfield shuffle isn't working for Gomez and Young.

I don't see any benefit from playing Young over Gomez. I will break down the argument I have for Gomez in 4 categories: Defense, Hitting, Base Running, and Potential

Defense

There is no argument defensively Gomez is far superior, and a Span, Gomez, Cuddyer outfield is much more effective than a Young, Span, Cuddyer outfield. Carlos has been referred by national media as one of the top defensive outfielders in the game.

Advantage: Gomez


Base Running

Stolen bases: Gomez 4 of 7, Young 2 of 4

Clearly Gomez has ability to steal a TON of bases, and Young is maybe slightly better than average.

Advantage: Gomez


Hitting

Hitting category at a glance looks pretty close:
  • AB (At Bats) -- Young: 109 Gomez: 100
  • HR (Home runs) -- Young: 1 Gomez: 0
  • RBI (Runs Batted In) -- Young: 14 Gomez: 3
  • BA (Batting Average) -- Young: .239 Gomez: .220
  • OBP (On Base Percentage) -- Dead even: .282
  • SLG (Slugging Percentage) -- Gomez: .310 Young: .275
  • OPS (On Base plus Slugging Percentage) -- Gomez: .592 Young: .557
Clearly these are anemic numbers! Both players have significant room to improve here.
The only category Young has a significant edge in is RBI (14 - 3), part of this can be attributed to the fact that he has routinely hitting 6th or 7th in the lineup with Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer before him therefore giving him many more chances, because Gomez typically has had Punto, Casilla/Tolbert batting before him.

Advantage: EVEN

Potential

Both players are 23 years old. Both players have huge "up-side".

Many "experts" believe Young has the ability to hit .300 belt 30 HRs and drive in 100 runs a year. Some of those same "experts" believe Gomez to have the ability to bat 1 or 2 in a lineup, steal 70-80 bases a year, and score 140 runs.

Advantage: EVEN

The problem the Twins have is they have 1 outfield spot for the 2 young inexperienced players, as they need Span in leadoff spot and Cuddyer is clearly deserving of everyday duty based on his month of May stats.

Based on this analysis, it is clear to me that Gomez needs to be given an everyday opportunity. Bat him 9th, and see if he can get on-base for Span and Mauer. Let him go do his thing until the all-star break, then re-evaluate. Demote Delmon to AAA have him focus on patience and let him get his head clear, but most importantly get him ABs down in the minors, he clearly needs them.

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