Game 163... I have 1 word: Unbelievable!

I was there! Me, my wife, and 3 boys (ages 7, 10, & 12). It was the greatest baseball game I ever attended! I was at last years big comeback win versus the Whitesox to tie them for the division on game 159, that game was a big comeback that was very dramatic and fun, but this game was a see-saw of emotion, my 7 year old was emotionally spent by the 10th innning, I was getting there. Our seats weren't very good 21 rows up in upper deck Center field, but it didn't matter! That was a game I will never forget!

Big Moments in the game:

1. Cabrera's homer to give Tiger lead 3-0. The crowd was deflated, but getting the 1 run back the next inning gave everyone some hope.
2. Kubel's solo homer to make it 3-2. This got the crowd really going again. He absolutely crushed that pitch!
3. O Cabrera's 2-run homer to give the Twins a 4-3 lead! I have been at playoff games and I never heard the dome that loud! Crazy, my 7 year old had to cover his ears!
4. Ordonez's game tying home-run... as loud as it was the previous half inning it was equally quiet after that hit.
5. Nathan getting out of the Jam in the Top of the Ninth with unlikely strikeout and then the line-out double play! His fist pump was awesome!
6. Brandon Inge's double in the Top of the 10th. After getting out of major jams the previous 2 innings, a runner on first with 2 outs and Inge at the plate didn't seem like a big deal until it was 5-4. My 10 year old said, "I didn't come here and stay this long to see them lose!"
7. Micheal Cuddyer's leadoff "triple" that was badly misplayed by not 1 but 2 Detroit outfielders! After that I felt the entire dome thought this was our game, and we would win it this inning!
8. Tolbert's game-tying single! I still can't believe that ball made it through the infield, but when Casilla made it to 3rd with 1 out and the game tied, I thought we were gonna win!
9. Rayburn's awesome double play. Casilla's tag-up gaffe helped a little but it still took an outstanding throw by Rayburn to get him out at the plate.
10. Punto's throw home with 1 out and bases loaded on a chopper to 2nd! What a smart play knowing the double play was unlikely, but how lucky are the Twins that it was slow footed Cabrera trying to score from 3rd?
    
11. Keppel's strikeout of Laird. After falling behind 3-1 I began to accept in my mind that he was gonna walk in the go-ahead run, and I was hoping it would only be a 1-run deficit going into the bottom of the 12th with a tiring Rodney. But Bobby got a foul strike 2 and then for some reason Laird chase a ball below his knees and whiffed for strike 3!
12. Gomez's single to lead off the bottom of the 12th. I felt with his speed on the bases and no-one out we should be able to get him home. Then Cuddyer moves him over on a groudout to 3rd and they intentionally walk Delmon, I realized with 1 out it will be up to Casilla/Tolbert/Punto to get it done and I was worried.
13. Casilla, the hero in that epic Whitesox game 159 last year, singles on a bouncer in the hole between 1st and 2nd, Gomez bellyflops home and slides across the plate, and Casilla is the hero yet again! Twins win! Twins win!

There are other more minor but equally important moments, in the game like the luck that the Ump missed that Inge's jersey was brushed by a pitch with the bases loaded in the top of the 12th and Baker pitching around a lead-off double in the 2nd, just to name a few.

What a game. Thanks Twins for that memory with my family at the ballpark, I will cherish it. How they celebrated with the fans on the field afterwards, and the energy in the city as everyone eventually spilled out of the dome into the streets, it was a magical, memorable night!

The most unlikely road to the Division championship ever, even more so than the way they won it on the last game in 2006, because 3/5ths of the rotation falls apart in August, they lose both of their corner infielders for the season in early/mid September and yet somehow they finish the last 21 games 17-4.

One word: Unbelievable!

Make a major move or see everything crumble

Ok. The All-Star break analysis from everyone under the sun is about done. Twins are about to start the second half with a game in Texas to start a 10-game road trip. Here is my take.

The next 2 weeks could make or break the next 3-4 seasons of the Minnesota Twins organization.

Seem a bit over the top? Let me explain.

This time of year, the Twins have been in the hunt for a division title every year since the M&M boys started playing together and even a few years before that. Every year they have glaring weaknesses that could be fixed with a trade or two before the non-waiver deadline. Every year they have done nothing or even worse given up players (Luis Castillo).

If your an all-world catcher with your contract year just a little over a year away... what makes you stay? Ok he is a local kid, so there is that angle, not a huge incentive. Year after year you see your organization waste chances at some postseason success.

There comes a time when you just want to feel like you can play with the big boys (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels). Joe wants more than just to make the postseason he wants to win the whole thing. The way this team has operated to date since Joe has been here, he has no reason to believe they will change.

Bill Smith, and Jim Pohlad if your smart you make a deal in the next 2 weeks, go get a impact player like Sanchez or Tejada. Trade a few of our prospects... win now, or see Joe leave after next season... with Mauer gone... Morneau will be soon to follow. Now your young nucleus is gone because you refused to trade a few "prospects"????

Please I beg you, make something happen....make us believe you want to win, and more importantly make Joe Mauer believe it too.

Lineup & bullpen thoughts.

Yesterday the Twins played the lineup I think they should stick with as much as possible with their current roster (with the exception of Delmon giving Kubel a break when we face tough lefties).

Span -- LF

Harris -- SS

Mauer -- C

Morneau -- 1B

Kubel -- DH

Cuddyer -- RF

Crede -- 3B

Gomez -- CF

Punto -- 2B

Bench:

Tolbert, Young, Morales, Redmond, & Buscher

That is a pretty solid lineup sans Punto.

I have heard other bloggers talk about a kid in AAA, Steven Tolleson (see Josh's Thoughts). His defense is a little shakey but he is swinging a solid bat (kinda sounds like what everyone was saying about Harris a month ago). I don't know why he isn't given a shot instead of Tolbert (who is a duplicate of Punto, good defense but can't hit). With Tolleson and Punto we can platoon them at 2B depending on the situation (have Tolleson pitch hit for Punto late in games when we are behind, and bring in Punto for Tolleson as defensive replacement in games we are winning). Right now we don't have a difference with Tolbert and Punto.

With Tolleson he could bat 8th, and put Gomez 9th where he did decent last year as a "2nd leadoff guy" for the top of the lineup (LaRussa philosophy).

To me this is the last hole to be plugged in the lineup.

As for the Bench, Young really needs to be in AAA working on a better plate approach but that won't happen with his contract. Tolbert I've already commented on. Buscher is a need to backup a Crede with his back issues and give Morneau an occassional break at 1B. Redmond is our backup catcher. That leaves Morales who isn't getting any better riding the pine in the Majors as the 3rd catcher. He needs more work on his defense in AAA. It seems pretty clear that he will be Mauer's backup next season as Redmond will start looking into managing in the lower levels somewhere. I think his roster spot is best used with more help in the bullpen.

Bullpen issues by role:

1. Closer -- Nathan has looked stronger as the season has gone on. No issue here.
2. Setup Righty -- Matt Guerrier does well when he isn't over-used.
3. Setup Lefty -- Jose Mijares is in this role but is more of a Lefty Specialist as he has struggled against right handed batting this season.
4. Long Man -- R.A. Dickey needs to stay in this role as he does well there, but can get us through the 7th on occassion to give others a rest.
5. 6th & 7th Inning Righty -- Keppel with only 2 appearances is a small sample size, but has been excellent so far, but his Minor league stats suggests that he is quite average.
6. 6th & 7th Inning Lefty -- Henn is supposed to be Lefty help in the pen but has been shaky at best (0-3 in11.1 innings -- 9 ER, 8 BB, 2 HR).

The problem here is not overusing Guerrier. We need a lefty that can be more than a specialist, and a righty that can consistently work the 7th & occassional 8th to spell Guerrier. Now maybe Keppel can be that right hander, we'll find out. But a proven MLB reliever is a big need right now for the Twins.

Span will be missed, Welcome back Perkins!

Span going on the DL really is a big blow as he is a great table setter for the M & M boys. So far in his absense, Gardy has tried Tolbert in that leadoff spot, but that hasn't worked, the best option appears to be Harris in leadoff and bat M&M 2nd and 3rd. Harris has the bat to get on base and the patience to draw a few walks as well. Gardy has to be thinking Harris could be 2nd in the lineup when Span returns so he can get Mauer back in the 3 spot and Morneau in cleanup where he likes them.

Perkins is back! And he pitched pretty well although he had a couple of near home runs to left field. He did appear to get stronger as the game went on, hopefully he is back to the form he had in April for his first 3 starts when he went 8 innings in each start and had a 1.50 ERA. For his first start back from DL to go 6 innings and get the quality start and more importantly the WIN, thats pretty darn good.

So far we are 6-1 in Interleague games! Keep it up and we'll have a very successful June!

Go Twins!

Swarzak instead of Liriano? Are You Sure!?!?!

So I posted a while ago not to give up on Liriano after a couple of twin cities newspaper columnists suggested replacing him with Swarzak in the rotation when Perkins comes back.

That was after 2 decent outings from Swarzak and Liriano struggling, now lets revisit that discussion.  Swarzak is 1-3 and he couldn't get out of the 4th inning last night.  If we add that to his last start he has pitched a total of 7 2/3 innings allowing 9 runs (all earned) , 13 hits, 3 walks.  

Liriano on the other hand, a proven commodity, got a decent start, he still is walking to many (4 BB) but was able to pitch out of jams.  He went 6 innings allowing 1 run and the team WON.  He didn't get the win, so no one talked about his performance.  Why is that?  A pitcher will pitch well not get the run support so its like the outing never happened.  

Bottom of the lineup is waking up!?!?  Top of lineup struggling.

This road trip is off to a 1-3 start, but I don't blame the bottom of the order for the lack of runs:

• Gomez: 4 hits 2 RBI and 2 BB in his last 5 games.    Respectible for the bottom of the order
  
• Casilla: 0-3 last night but the 3 games before that he has 4 hits, 1 walk.  He seems to be swinging better lately.
  
• Tolbert: In a spot start Tolbert had a big 2 RBI single last night.
  
• Young:  has 1 hit in 3 of his last 4 games played.  
  

The Big hitters have struggled on the road trip so far:

• Span:  2-16  2-BB 5-Ks 0-RBI 1-Run
  
• Mauer:  4-16 2-BB 2-Ks 0-RBI 1-Run (respectable but not Mauer-like)
  
• Morneau:  1-15 (2 RBI but both on outs)
  
• Kubel:  0-11 1-BB 
  

That a combined:  7-58 (.121 BA)  2 RBI  - This will NOT get it done and is the #1 reason we are 1-3 on this road trip so far.

Indians Series Summary

Tuesday we got another W from Mr. (Find a way to win the game) Slowey!    If Morneau doesn't tip that flare to right field Casilla probably catches it and Slowey would have had 7 shutout innings.  He is getting it done with slightly above average stuff but he has been very smart.  He is keeping hitters off balance and unbelievably he is 8-1!  Good solid job by Nathan to get the 4-out save while Mijares looked a little shaky. On the offensive side, Mauer starts June the way he started May with another home run!  

Wednesday we got what I expected to see against Boston in his previous start.  The rook (Swarzak) got shelled.  It was bound to happen, just surpised it happened against the last place team instead of the first place team.  If I was Gardy I would have left him out for the 5th to see if he could compose himself and put up a zero, at that point with the way Lee was pitching the game was out of reach anyway why not find out what this rookie is made of?

Thursday the slumbering home-run bat of Jason Kubel woke up in a big way!  2 3-run home runs in the first 2 innings!  And we had a Scott Baker sighting: 7 innings 3 runs (2 earned)  and had a shutout into the 6th.  That looked like the Baker we have been expecting to see a lot more of.  He gave up another HR, as he will, but it was a solo shot, which is easier to swallow.

Another bad series for the bottom of the order (4 for 31 with 1 BB) , we need more from them, at least Gomez had 2 hits, although 2-10 isn't anything to get too excited about.  Young and Gomez are still not patient enough at the plate.

Up next Seattle 

Don't expect a ton of runs this weekend as Seattle is leading the AL in Team ERA: 3.88!  The Twins pitchers have to go into this series thinking they will not have much room for error.

The first game is featuring the rematch of the Twins home opener (Liriano vs. Hernandez), this could be a close pitchers duel if Liriano can locate his fastball and mix in his changeup more to keep the hitters off balance and then get Ks with that nice slider.  

The most favorable pitching matchup over the weekend is game 2 with Blackburn vs. Washburn but all 3 of the Seattle pitchers have been very tough, all 3 with ERAs under 4 and Bedard (Sunday's pitcher for Seattle) has his era under 3.  With Felix Hernandez being a tough righty and the other two being tough lefties (which can be tough for the left-hand heavy Twins), the Twins pitchers have to step up this weekend.

Go Twins!

Young vs. Gomez

Lately everyone is looking at our offense, or lack thereof from middle infield and from the Young/Gomez outfielder du jour. I think the Twins need some stability in the lineup. They need the same lineup for 5 games a week. The outfield shuffle isn't working for Gomez and Young.

I don't see any benefit from playing Young over Gomez. I will break down the argument I have for Gomez in 4 categories: Defense, Hitting, Base Running, and Potential

Defense

There is no argument defensively Gomez is far superior, and a Span, Gomez, Cuddyer outfield is much more effective than a Young, Span, Cuddyer outfield. Carlos has been referred by national media as one of the top defensive outfielders in the game.

Advantage: Gomez


Base Running

Stolen bases: Gomez 4 of 7, Young 2 of 4

Clearly Gomez has ability to steal a TON of bases, and Young is maybe slightly better than average.

Advantage: Gomez


Hitting

Hitting category at a glance looks pretty close:

• AB (At Bats) -- Young: 109 Gomez: 100
  
• HR (Home runs) -- Young: 1 Gomez: 0
• RBI (Runs Batted In) -- Young: 14 Gomez: 3
  
• BA (Batting Average) -- Young: .239 Gomez: .220
• OBP (On Base Percentage) -- Dead even: .282
• SLG (Slugging Percentage) -- Gomez: .310 Young: .275
• OPS (On Base plus Slugging Percentage) -- Gomez: .592 Young: .557

Clearly these are anemic numbers! Both players have significant room to improve here.
The only category Young has a significant edge in is RBI (14 - 3), part of this can be attributed to the fact that he has routinely hitting 6th or 7th in the lineup with Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer before him therefore giving him many more chances, because Gomez typically has had Punto, Casilla/Tolbert batting before him.

Advantage: EVEN

Potential

Both players are 23 years old. Both players have huge "up-side".

Many "experts" believe Young has the ability to hit .300 belt 30 HRs and drive in 100 runs a year. Some of those same "experts" believe Gomez to have the ability to bat 1 or 2 in a lineup, steal 70-80 bases a year, and score 140 runs.

Advantage: EVEN

The problem the Twins have is they have 1 outfield spot for the 2 young inexperienced players, as they need Span in leadoff spot and Cuddyer is clearly deserving of everyday duty based on his month of May stats.

Based on this analysis, it is clear to me that Gomez needs to be given an everyday opportunity. Bat him 9th, and see if he can get on-base for Span and Mauer. Let him go do his thing until the all-star break, then re-evaluate. Demote Delmon to AAA have him focus on patience and let him get his head clear, but most importantly get him ABs down in the minors, he clearly needs them.

A Deeper look at Liriano's season to date

Twins lost 3-1 to Boston but Swarzak navigated his way through 6+ innings pretty well.  Now Jim Souhan and Tom Powers are ready to kick Liriano out of the rotation!  

I know Liriano has struggled so far (2-6, 6.42 ERA)  but lets break it down a little.

In his 10 starts he has had 4 quality starts:

1. May 15th Against the Yankees in Yankee stadium where he only gave up 1 run in 6 innings, but everyone forgets that because we lost the game.  
2. May 4th Against Detroit he pitched into the 8th inning in a 7-2 win.  One of our 5 road wins to date.
3. April 28th Against Tampa he pitched 6 2/3 inning giving up 2 runs.
4. April 16th Against Toronto he gave up 2 runs (1 earned) in 6 innings but no one remembers cuz the bullpen collapsed and we lost 9 - 2 
   

He had 1 Ok start where the Twins were given a chance to win but not exactly a quality start:

1. Home opener(April 6)  vs. Seattle: he wasn't great, but 4 runs in 7 innings isn't horrible.
   

In all fairness that means he has had 5 poor starts... Of those he started the game well but gave up 1 or 2 crooked number innings with what I deem a mental lapse:

1. May 25th At Home vs Boston, 5 Runs in 4 Innings:  scoreless 1st 2 innings then 5 runs in next 2.
2. May 20th loss versus ChiSox where he pitched 3 scoreless solid innings then gave up a 7 run 4th.
3. May 9th  at Home vs. Seattle, 5 runs in 5 innings:  scorelss 1st 3 innings then 5 runs in next 2.
4. April 22nd loss versus ChiSox where he pitched 4 solid innings and then gave up 4 runs in the 5th.
5. April 11th in Boston ,  7 runs in 4 innings:  scoreless 1st inning then 3 straight crooked numbers

In most of these 5 bad losses he wasn't giving up "small ball" dink and dunk sort of hits, most of the runs are scored on HRs and doubles.  To me Liriano has too good of stuff to get hit that hard that much.  So why is it happening?  Mental lapses or lack of mental toughness when they get a guy or 2 on base, and there has been some quotes talking about him not locating his fastball.

Liriano when pitching well has 3 good pitches... fastball (low - mid 90s), slider (can still be knee buckling at times), and changeup which has been very effective when he is hitting his spots with his fastball.  

Liriano's past (the way he finished 2008 and his 2006 numbers) and his stuff (not as good as 2006 but still above average) warrants Gardy to give him a chance to rebound and get over his mental lapses.

Swarzak has pitched well and deserves consideration to stay in the majors but I don't believe that should be at the expense of Liriano's starting spot in the rotation, at least not yet.

Not Pretty but a Win

Last nights game versus the Red Sox wasn't pretty, but another quality start and W for Slowey and the lately resurging bullpen won the game for the Twins.  Denard was setting the table but with 14 LOB there wasn't a lot of clutch hitting.

Hopefully Swarzak can continue his good pitching from last start and the clutch hits happen for the Twins today in the finally against Beckett, no small task for the Twins hitters.

No worries about Road just something to prove

Ruesse's column talks about how the Twins have a heavy road schedule ahead, and how we haven't played well on the Road (5-14), also how the Twins didn't take advantage of red hot month of May by Morneau and Mauer.  All of this is easy to point out and one could argue that the Twins will be lucky to be 5 games under 500 by July 1st with such a heavy road schedule in June.  I have a different outlook.  

Break down the May road losses: 

1. Tigers 9-0 -- Blackburn has a rare poor outing and a rookie pitcher (no-one has a book on him) shuts down the Twins.
   
2. Orioles 4-1 --  Rain started and stopped (several times)  game that should have been postponed.
3. Orioles 5-4 -- Tough fought game with Mijares losing with run in bottom of 8.
4. Yankees 4 game sweep -- Tough fought games all 4 were close (3 Yankee walk-offs) - bullpen pitched a lot of innings and couldn't hold off Yankee hitters in homer friendly park.
5. White Sox 2 losses -- Buerle & Danks were good and Baker & Liriano stunk not getting into 6th putting even more stress on bullpen.

So the Twins in May were 2-9 on the road.  However one could argue they aren't playing all that poorly the 4 game sweep at the Yankees could have easily been 2-2 or even a 4-0 the other way... and the rain shortened joke of a game in Baltimore you might as well throw out.  The other Baltimore loss was a close hard fought game.

So I'm not making excuses for the Twins, they need to win on the road.  But if you really look at the month of May's road games we haven't played poorly just were unable to close out games in 5 of the 9 losses, another loss was a joke of a game, so in actuality only 3 of the 11 road games did the Twins play poorly.   Of the 5 close losses 4 were on the overworked bullpen and the other was the start of Perkins decline ending him in the DL.

Essentially the Twins bullpen needs to be clutch on the road, the starters have gone deeper into games lately giving the bullpen a bit of a reprieve,  that will need to continue so the fresher arms in the pen can be more effective.  

I am not overly worried about the Twins winning on the road, they have inter-league games coming up that they have historically been very good in.  Pitching will be the key, getting a minimum of 6 and hopefully 7 quality innings from the starters, and good pitching from Mijares, Guerrier, and Nathan.

2009 Twins to date

Since this is my first post with real content I thought I'd start with my thoughts on the 2009 Twins to date.

Pre-season 2009 

Here is a quick review of what my general thoughts were about the Twins heading into the season.

Strengths

1. Starting pitching  -  5 returning young solid starters from 2008
2. Defense  -  Gomez, Span, Cuddyer, Crede, Punto, Morneau, Mauer all good if not great defenders
   
3. Speed  -  Gomez, Span, Casilla, Punto use there speed to play "Small Ball"
4. Closer  -  Joe Nathan is rated by many as a top 5 closer in MLB

Weaknesses

1. Middle Relief Pitching -- Neshek and Reyes gone who will pitch 6th & 7th?
2. Hitting for Power  -  After Morneau, no one is a major power threat: Crede & Kubel considered OK.

2009 April & May reality

Its actually comical to look at that pre-season analysis and see how different it has played out so far.

We have been right about 1 Strength & 1 Weakness.   2 out of 6 in baseball terms isn't too bad ;)

Lets revisit each item:

Starting Pitching -- Only Mediocre definitely not a Strength

• Liriano (2-6 ERA:6.42) has been disappointing and can't locate fastball
• Baker (2-5 ERA: 6.52) was injured and had a very rocky start, starting to show improvement.
  
• Slowey (6-1 ERA: 4.23) has been OK and benefited from a lot of run support
• Blackburn (4-2 ERA: 3.55) has been Twins best pitcher, a solid middle of rotation guy.
• Perkins (1-3 ERA: 5.36) started really well but got no run support, but has struggled in his last several starts before landing on DL.

Defense -- Very Strong 

2nd fewest Errors in MLB!  Crede has been great, Punto has been Punto, Gomez & Span seem to track down everything in the outfield, even Delmon Young has played well defensively lately.   Morales and Redmond weren't great but held there own in April until Mauer returned.

Speed -- Mediocre at best

Small ball hasn't really happened like we like to draw it up, mainly because Punto, Casilla (when he was on the team) and Gomez haven't been on base!  Their horrid hitting has hurt our ability to play traditional Twins Small ball.  The lone bright spot has been Denard Span, who looked awful in spring training, has been hitting for average and drawing walks, he leads the team in stolen bases (with 10)

Closer -- Average

Nathan hasn't had a lot of work (18 appearances but only 9 save opportunities), but 22% of his saves chances have been lost, that isn't very Nathan like.  He hasn't looked dominating even when he gets the saves.  I'm not too concerned, Joe has underperformed to date, but hasn't had the regular work, so hopefully with regular opportunities he will get into a rhythm.

Middle Releif Pitching -- Poor

Ayala hasn't worked out too well, Guerrier had a bad April but has been markedly better in May.  Crain has been a headcase so far.  Mijares has been OK, but not as good as September last year, Dickey has probably been the only one I can actually say has been better than expected.

Hitting for Power -- Unbelievable!!!!

Morneau we expected to do well, but 14 HRs before the end of May is even better than we thought.  Mauer has only had 1 month but is already hit 11 HRs, where did this sudden power surge come from!?!?!   Cuddyer had a slow April but he is hitting well (8 HRs), Kubel had a better April and is slowed by a swollen knee.  Crede is also hitting it into the crowd (8 HRs).  5th most HRs in the majors as a Team!!

What To Look For in June

Twins need to get the bottom of the lineup to play small ball like they did last night for 1 inning versus Boston, so the big guys can clear them off the bases with all this new found HR power (again like Morneau did last night).  If they can do that the team speed will start to show through.  Starting pitching needs to improve and get into the 7th Inning to keep workload down on guys like Guerrier and Mijares so they can be more effective when they do pitch.

Go Twins!

Welcome

This blog is the rants, raves, opinions, and various other thoughts of mine about Major League Baseball's Minnesota Twins.

I'm a huge Twins fan with huge opinions.  I find myself commenting on alot of other Twins blogs.   So, I decided I need a central location for all my thoughts on the Minnesota Twins. 

I don't know how much it will be read, and for now I don't really care.  Its more for me than anyone.  Fell free to comment about how insane my thinking is, how brialliant I am, or anything in-between.