Friday, May 29, 2009

A Deeper look at Liriano's season to date

Twins lost 3-1 to Boston but Swarzak navigated his way through 6+ innings pretty well.  Now Jim Souhan and Tom Powers are ready to kick Liriano out of the rotation!  

I know Liriano has struggled so far (2-6, 6.42 ERA)  but lets break it down a little.

In his 10 starts he has had 4 quality starts:
  1. May 15th Against the Yankees in Yankee stadium where he only gave up 1 run in 6 innings, but everyone forgets that because we lost the game.  
  2. May 4th Against Detroit he pitched into the 8th inning in a 7-2 win.  One of our 5 road wins to date.
  3. April 28th Against Tampa he pitched 6 2/3 inning giving up 2 runs.
  4. April 16th Against Toronto he gave up 2 runs (1 earned) in 6 innings but no one remembers cuz the bullpen collapsed and we lost 9 - 2 

He had 1 Ok start where the Twins were given a chance to win but not exactly a quality start:
  1. Home opener(April 6)  vs. Seattle: he wasn't great, but 4 runs in 7 innings isn't horrible.

In all fairness that means he has had 5 poor starts... Of those he started the game well but gave up 1 or 2 crooked number innings with what I deem a mental lapse:

  1. May 25th At Home vs Boston, 5 Runs in 4 Innings:  scoreless 1st 2 innings then 5 runs in next 2.
  2. May 20th loss versus ChiSox where he pitched 3 scoreless solid innings then gave up a 7 run 4th.
  3. May 9th  at Home vs. Seattle, 5 runs in 5 innings:  scorelss 1st 3 innings then 5 runs in next 2.
  4. April 22nd loss versus ChiSox where he pitched 4 solid innings and then gave up 4 runs in the 5th.
  5. April 11th in Boston ,  7 runs in 4 innings:  scoreless 1st inning then 3 straight crooked numbers
In most of these 5 bad losses he wasn't giving up "small ball" dink and dunk sort of hits, most of the runs are scored on HRs and doubles.  To me Liriano has too good of stuff to get hit that hard that much.  So why is it happening?  Mental lapses or lack of mental toughness when they get a guy or 2 on base, and there has been some quotes talking about him not locating his fastball.

Liriano when pitching well has 3 good pitches... fastball (low - mid 90s), slider (can still be knee buckling at times), and changeup which has been very effective when he is hitting his spots with his fastball.  

Liriano's past (the way he finished 2008 and his 2006 numbers) and his stuff (not as good as 2006 but still above average) warrants Gardy to give him a chance to rebound and get over his mental lapses.

Swarzak has pitched well and deserves consideration to stay in the majors but I don't believe that should be at the expense of Liriano's starting spot in the rotation, at least not yet.

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